An air war without mandate. A summit without consequence. Israel strikes, the U.S. follows. NATO celebrates itself. Welcome to the post-consensus world.
1. Three Dates, One Pattern
June 13: Israel bombs Iranian targets deep inside the country. Air defenses, missile silos, nuclear centers, military leaders, scientists – all included. The operation is called “Rising Lion.” It’s not a signal. It’s a statement.
June 22/23: The U.S. follows with “Operation Midnight Hammer.” B-2 bombers and Tomahawks hit underground facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Massive Ordnance Penetrators included.
June 24: NATO summit in The Hague. Mark Rutte calls for defense spending to rise to 5% of GDP. The cameras click. The masks fit. Only one thing is missing: the world as it really is.
2. The Western Reflex: Coordinate, But Don’t Ask
Israel needed no green light. Just an air corridor. The U.S. provided it – not via NATO, but bilaterally. And rightly so: neither Israel nor Iran is a member. NATO has no business there. It’s simply not its mandate.
When Israel struck, U.S. infrastructure was already on standby. The hit didn’t come as a surprise – it was part of a script. European NATO partners? Likely found out from the media – or from the silence of their American colleagues.
America acted alone. Congress? Only the Republicans were informed – not consulted. NATO? Just a backdrop. This wasn’t about legitimacy. It was about momentum.
3. Rutte Preaches the Gospel of Budgets
The new NATO chief is a magician of harmony. Rutte speaks of responsibility, unity, and resilience investments. Bridges, railways, tunnels, pipelines. Sounds like security, but in reality:
Indulgence 2.0 – payments for the promise of being spared.
3.5% for combat readiness, 1.5% for everything else. The fact that Iranian bunkers are collapsing at the same time? Not a topic in The Hague. Too uneconomical.
4. The New Art of Decoupling
What becomes visible in 2025 is the silent detachment of mandate and action. NATO remains in place – as infrastructure, PR shell, budget envelope. But its reach ends where others start pulling triggers.
Israel attacks Iran – not a NATO issue. Not a member. Not a mandate.
The U.S. follows – bilaterally, autonomously, without asking. Also not a NATO matter.
This is not a flaw. It’s architecture. Article 5 applies only to attacks on members. As long as Iran doesn’t strike back at NATO territory – or the U.S. doesn’t try to invoke Article 5 over retaliation – the alliance stays theoretical.
Until then: NATO does not act because it must not act. And that, paradoxically, is its new strength.
5. Iran Responds – Smarter Than Expected
June 26: Rockets hit a U.S. base in Qatar. No casualties. Prior warning given to the Americans.
This is not war. This is diplomacy by harder means.
Tehran shows: We can strike back – selectively, limited, but visibly. The message: We’re alive. And we decide when.
China takes note: Western airstrikes still work. Russia is pleased: The West fractures into coalitions of the willing. And Europe? Does the math.
6. The Global Learning Curve
Membership without firepower means nothing.
Those who strike need no mandate.
Silence forfeits the right to question.
Welcome to the new reality:
Coordination without community. Alliances without content. Action without accountability.
This world isn’t falling apart. It’s being recalibrated. For efficiency. For asymmetrical consensus. For the art of projecting power without owning responsibility.
7. Coda: The New Rule Is There Is None
The West has learned: Consensus is overrated. Impact is not.
NATO can celebrate. The U.S. can bomb. Israel can kill. Iran can retaliate. Europe can budget. And China can watch.
The order remains. Only the rules no longer apply.
They call that stability. In the language of power.