Briefings. Notes. Clues.
Because diplomacy rarely leaves fingerprints
but always leaves traces.
The Strait That Speaks
The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. It is being filtered. Who passes is determined by designation, not geography. That is not the language of a closed war port. It is the language of controlled
The Silence That Counts
Beijing condemned loudly, announced a special envoy, evacuated its citizens. Then it waited. The condemnations are the furniture. The silence is the architecture — and it is saying something very specific.
After the Architect
The architecture of power remains. The architect does not. Five days after the strikes, the succession question is open, the diplomatic infrastructure is gone, and the three conditions for successful regime change are still absent.
The Morning After the Last Analogy
Oman announced progress within hours of the strikes. By morning, Tehran was burning. A colleague told me the lessons of the past have become meaningless. He is half right — which makes him dangerously wrong.
The Absent Party
Exclusion of this kind is not accidental. It requires effort. Negotiating formats do not spontaneously contract; they have to be designed to exclude.
The Corridor
And yet — this is the uncomfortable part — the corridor may be the only remaining space where movement is still conceivable. Not the conference room with the microphones and the flags.
War Without Decision
Something has shifted in the way conflicts are handled, not through proclamations or strategic doctrine, but through practice that has quietly detached itself from older expectations.
2026: The Year After the Illusions
I initially believed that 2025 would be remembered as a year of decisive geopolitical rupture — a moment when history accelerated and forced choices that could no longer be deferred. It will not be remembered
Rare Earth Realpolitik – Europe’s Strategic Blind Spot
Europe’s green and digital transformation rests on a comforting illusion: that a continent which controls none of the decisive materials for modern industry can still dictate the terms of its technological future.
A Deal Without the Victim – But With Spoils – Alaska Postscript 1.5
Alaska. The show. Yes, there was a press conference.