It started with a postcard.
White sand. A pier. A boy in yellow rubber boots staring at a container ship on the horizon. My daughter drew it last week, apparently inspired by some thoughts about where “stuff comes from.” I looked at the picture longer than she expected. She thought I was proud. Yes, I was about her masterpiece and as a part of truth, I was terrified.
Because behind every clean line in a child’s drawing, there’s a shadow we rarely talk about. Supply chains don’t just move goods. They draw borders, they write contracts, they define who gets to set the rules. And the real game? It’s not about owning the mine. It’s about owning the map.
Brussels Wants to Set the Rules
On March 16, 2023, the EU Commission presented its Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in Brussels. The goal? Reduce dependence on third-country suppliers, especially China, and secure Europe’s so-called “strategic autonomy.” A noble script, played with polished confidence. But in geopolitics, confidence without leverage is theatre.
Fast-forward to March 25, 2025: the EU announces its first 47 Strategic Projects within Europe – lithium in Finland, rare earth processing in Estonia, recycling in France. A few months later, on June 4, another 13 projects are unveiled outside the EU – from Canada to South Africa – with a projected investment of €5.5 billion. A common procurement platform, managed by PwC and partners, is also on the launchpad.
On paper: progress.
On the ground: paperwork.
Because while Brussels crafts regulations, Beijing moves resources.
China Is Already Holding the Pen
Let’s get real: 98% of global rare earths refining is Chinese. Not because they own every mine, but because they own every millimeter between extraction and standardization. They build the roads, finance the plants, buy the offtakes, and – crucially – define what qualifies as “battery-grade.”
In the critical minerals game, ownership isn’t power. Processing is. Standards are. Control over the choke points is.
What Europe is doing is a reaction. What China did was a strategy. One took press releases; the other took a decade.
The Global South Isn’t Sleeping Either
While the North debates taxonomy, Namibia, Indonesia, and Chile change the terms. No more raw exports. More in-country processing. Bidders? Compete. Timelines? Shifted. ESG? Conditional.
And here’s the kicker: many of these countries are more interested in what China offers – infrastructure, no lectures, quick execution – than in Brussels’ rulebook.
The CRMA assumes grateful partners. Reality: they’re dealers, not dependents. They know the resource is scarce. And they’ve learned to play buyers against each other.
The Map, Not the Mine
The real question isn’t “Who has the raw materials?” but: “Who writes the specifications that make them usable in the first place?”
You don’t win this game by breaking rocks. You win by:
defining “sustainable supply” in your favor
embedding your standards in trade agreements
positioning your companies in refining and certification chains
turning resource dependency into rules-based asymmetry
And if you can do that without ever owning a shovel – congratulations. You don’t just play geopolitics. You publish the rulebook.
The Coming Showdown
As the EU’s CRMA enters implementation, a collision looms:
Technical Standards vs. Strategic Realities
Green Goals vs. Dirty Hands
Ethical Sourcing vs. Sourcing, Period
The EU will insist on ESG. China will offer speed. The Global South will ask, “Who pays more – and with fewer strings?”
By the time Brussels signs another MOU, the next shipment will already be on the water – financed, insured, and priced by someone else.
Final Thought
Strategic autonomy isn’t about flag-planting or ownership. It’s about system design. Those who shape the value chain, write the terms of trade, and enforce the technical definitions – they win.
Better to wake up now than wake up broke. The world won’t wait for polite consensus, and it won’t wait for your budget cycle. Projects defined today become leverage tomorrow; hesitation becomes someone else’s advantage. The choice isn’t between comfort and discomfort – it’s between relevance and the slow fade into other people’s footnotes. You still have a seat at the table. Use it before the table moves without you.