Brussels loves its grand unveilings. On March 16, 2023, the European Commission rolled out the Critical Raw Materials Act with all the usual fanfare – speeches about “strategic autonomy” and “reducing dependency,” delivered in a room full of people who depend on coffee from Kenya, gas from Norway, and rare earths from… China.
Fast-forward two years: the glossy policy paper is now a list of 47 “Strategic Projects” inside Europe – lithium from Finland, recycling in France – and 13 more abroad, stretching from Canada to South Africa. The price tag: €5.5 billion. PwC and friends will run a shiny new EU procurement platform. The press releases read like victory laps.
But here’s the problem: resource diplomacy isn’t a level playing field. It’s a poker table where China already owns 98% of the rare earths market and the rest are just bluffing. The one who controls the supply chain writes the rulebook – and if you’re not in the room when the rules are written, you’re just another player holding someone else’s cards.
The real question isn’t “Who has the resources?” It’s: Who drafts the contract that decides how you’re allowed to use them, and in what font size your signature appears?